دوره 7، شماره 14 - ( پاییز و زمستان 1395 )                   جلد 7 شماره 14 صفحات 140-128 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها


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Application of Continuous Rainfall-Runoff HMS-SMA Model in Estimating Runoff and Flood and Droughts Frequency of Neka BasinunderA2 Climate Scenario of HadCM3 Model. jwmr. 2017; 7 (14) :140-128
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-764-fa.html
خوش‌روش مجتبی، رائینی محمود، نیکزاد طهرانی اسماعیل. کاربرد مدل بارش- رواناب پیوسته HMS-SMA برای برآورد رواناب فراوانی خشک‌سالی‌ها و سیلاب‏های حوزه نکا تحت سناریوی اقلیمی A2 مدل HadCM3. پ‍‍ژوهشنامه مديريت حوزه آبخيز. 1395; 7 (14) :140-128

URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-764-fa.html


استادیار
چکیده:   (1236 مشاهده)

     ارزیابی پدیده تغییر اقلیم و پیامدهای احتمالی آن بر فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی حوزه، کمک شایانی به تصمیم­گیران و مدیران منابع آب خواهد کرد. یکی از ابزارهای پُرکاربرد و مورد استفاده برای ارزیابی این پدیده، استفاده از شبیه­سازی فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی با مدل بارش- رواناب است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب و پیشامدهای خشک‌سالی و سیلاب حوزه نکارود در دوره 2069-2040 است. در این پژوهش از مدل نیمه توزیعی SMA در ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر هیدرولوژی حوزه نکارود استفاده شد. در این راستا نخست پارامترهای مدل پیوسته نیمه­توزیعی SMA برای دوره پایه (2010-1981) مورد واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی قرار گرفت، سپس برای ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و گرمایش جهانی بر هیدرولوژی حوزه در دوره 2069-2040 میلادی، داده­های مدل اقلیمی HadCM3-AR4 تحت سناریوی انتشار A2 از مجموع سناریوی SRES برای منطقه ریزمقیاس شد. در ادامه داده­های ریزمقیاس شده به مدل SMA معرفی شده و تغییرات رواناب در دوره­های آینده مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. مقایسه پارامترهای اقلیمی شبیه‌سازی‌شده توسط این مدل اقلیمی در دوره 2069-2040 نشان می­دهد که دمای منطقه در ماه­های مختلف بین 41/1 تا 47/3 درجه سانتی­گراد نسبت به دوره پایه گرم­تر می­شود. بارش برای ماه­های سرد تا 23 درصد افزایش، اما در ماه­های گرم تا 25 درصد کاهش می­یابد. هم چنین نتایج فراوانی خشک‌سالی و سیلاب نشان داد که میزان دبی حداقل هفت روزه برای دوره بازگشت 200 ساله در دوره آینده 2069-2040 نسبت به دوره 2010-1981 می­تواند نزدیک به هفت درصد کاهش داشته باشد.

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نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: تخصصي
دریافت: ۱۳۹۵/۱۱/۵ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۵/۱۱/۵ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۵/۱۱/۵

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