دوره 7، شماره 14 - ( پاییز و زمستان 1395 )                   جلد 7 شماره 14 صفحات 151-141 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها


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Assessment the Effects of Greenhouse Gases Emission and Climate Change on Supply and Demand of Irrigation Water and Agricultural Products in Watersheds of Qazvin Province . jwmr. 2017; 7 (14) :151-141
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-765-fa.html
پرهیزکاری ابوذر، مظفری محمدمهدی. ارزیابی اثرات انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و تغییرات اقلیم بر عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری و تولیدات کشاورزی در حوزه های آبخیز استان قزوین. پ‍‍ژوهشنامه مديريت حوزه آبخيز. 1395; 7 (14) :151-141

URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-765-fa.html


چکیده:   (1070 مشاهده)

     در مطالعه حاضر ابتدا با بهره­گیری از داده­های سری زمانی سال­های 92-1385 و مدل شبیه­سازی RCM-PRECIS اثر انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای بر متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش تحت سناریوهای مختلف در حوزه­های آبخیز استان قزوین بررسی شد. سپس، جهت بررسی میزان اثرگذاری متغیرهای دما و بارش بر عملکرد محصولات منتخب از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی (OLS) و تحلیل­های رگرسیونی استفاده شد. در ادامه با لحاظ نمودن نتایج تحلیل رگرسیونی در مدل برنامه­ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، میزان تغییرات به وجود آمده در عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری و تولیدات بخش کشاورزی در حوزه‌های آبخیز استان قزوین بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای تحت سناریوهای A، B و C متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش را به میزان 43/0 تا 27/1 درجه سانتی­گراد و 1/14- تا 31/1 میلی‌متر متأثر می­سازد که این امر عملکرد محصولات منتخب را در سطح حوزه­های آبخیز استان قزوین تغییر می­دهد. با تغییر در عملکرد، سطح زیرکشت محصولات زراعی از 51/10- تا 17/3 درصد، میزان عرضه آب آبیاری از 4/10- تا 64/1 درصد و میزان تقاضای آب آبیاری از 60/1 تا 35/7 درصد تغییر می­کند. هم­چنین، نتایج نشان داد که بیش­ترین و کمترین کاهش شکاف بین عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری در حوزه‌های آبخیز خررود و شاهرود به میزان 20/9 و 82/1 درصد حاصل می­شود.

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نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: تخصصي
دریافت: ۱۳۹۵/۱۱/۵ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۵/۱۱/۵ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۵/۱۱/۵

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