journal of watershed management research
پژوهشنامه مديريت حوزه آبخيز
jwmr
Agriculture
http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir
1
admin
2251-6174
2676-4636
10.61186/jwmr
fa
jalali
1402
5
1
gregorian
2023
8
1
14
27
online
1
fulltext
fa
شبیه سازی رواناب حوضه های آبخیز مناطق خشک در مقیاس ماهانه با استفاده از مدل SWAT (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز لار)
Simulating the Runoff of Watersheds in Dry Areas on A Monthly Scale using the SWAT Model (Case Study: Lar Watershed)
هيدرولوژی
هيدرولوژی
پژوهشي
Research
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:IRANsharp;"><span style="line-height:2;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">چکیده مبسوط</span></b></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">مقدمه و هدف:</span></b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> بشر در طول حیات خود شاهد حوادث مختلف هیدرولوژیکی مانند کمبود آب، خشکسالی، سیل، وقوع بهمن و ... بوده است که دامنه خطر این حوادث تابع رفتار متغیرهای هیدرولوژیکی و خصوصیات حوضه­ های آبخیز می ­باشد. فقدان آمار</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">و</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">اطلاعات یا</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">کافی</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">نبودن آمار</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">درست و مناسب</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">سبب</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">شده است تا</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">بررسی</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">و</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">شناخت</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">رفتار</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">متغیرهای</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">هیدرولوژیکی و</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">خصوصیات</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">حوضه­ های</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">آبخیز</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">با</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">دقت</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">قابل</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">قبولی صورت نگیرد</span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">.</span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> بر همین اساس، </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">مدل­ های هیدرولوژیکی</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">ابزار</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">مناسبی</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">برای</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">ارزیابی وضعیت کنونی منابع</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">آبی و</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> پیش­ بینی شرایط آتی با </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">آگاهی</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">و</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">درک</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> از </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">اندرکنش­ ها و تعاملات</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> حاکم در سطح حوضه ­های آبخیز </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">می</span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">­</span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">باشند.<span style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">مواد و روش ­ها:</span></b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> در این پژوهش، با استفاده از مدل </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">SWAT</span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> اقدام به انجام </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">شبیه ­سازی بارش- رواناب حوضه آبخیز لار شد که </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">برای این منظور </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">از داده</span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">­</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">های روزانه بارش، دما و دبی طی دوره آماری مشترک (2017-1988) استفاده شد. شبیه</span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">­</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">سازی اولیه مدل هیدرولوژیکی در افزونه </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">SWAT</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> انجام و از نرم افزار </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">SWAT-CUP</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> و روش </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">SUFI-2</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> به ­عنوان یک الگوریتم بهینه </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">برای تحلیل حساسیت، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل استفاده گردید.</span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">یافته­ ها:</span></b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> بر پایه مدل </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">SWAT</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> منطقه مورد مطالعه به 37 زیرحوضه و 308 واحد پاسخ هیدرلوژیکی تقسیم گردید. علاوه بر این، با تحلیل حساسیت </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">24 پارامتر موثر </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">بر شبیه­ سازی رواناب ماهانه خروجی حوضه آبخیز لار مشخص شد</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> که تعداد 7 پارامتر براساس مقادیر دو شاخص </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">t-state</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> و</span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">p-value</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">، به­ عنوان پارامترهایی با بیشترین اثرگذاری انتخاب و از این 7 پارامتر، سه پارامتر</span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> شماره</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">منحنی</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">برای</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">شرایط</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">رطوبتی متوسط</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">، </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">فاکتور</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">بازگشت</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">جریان</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">پایه</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">به</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">آبراهه</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">اصلی و متوسط</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">آب</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">قابل</span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">استفاده به­ عنوان </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">حساس­ترین پارامترها در شبیه ­سازی رواناب شناسایی گردیدند. سپس مدت 18 سال از دوره آماری (1988-2005) جهت واسنجی و 12 سال (2006-2017) برای اعتبارسنجی انتخاب شد. همچنین </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">کارآیی و راندمان</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> مدل با استفاده از ضرایب </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">NS</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">، </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">R<sup>2</sup></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">، </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">p-factor</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> و </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">r-factor</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. مقادیر این ضرایب طی دوره واسنجی به ­ترتیب 0/80، 0/82، 0/80 و 0/33 و طی دوره اعتبارسنجی 0/90، 0/90، 0/39 و 0/43 برآورد گردید. علاوه براین، انطباق زمانی نقاط اوج و فرود هیدروگراف­ های شبیه­ سازی شده و اندازه­گیری شده دبی نیز دقت بالای مدل در شبیه­ سازی را تأیید کرد.</span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt">نتیجه­ گیری:</span></b> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt">نتایج کسب شده نشان می­ دهد که با وجود جریان فصلی و بدون جریان پایه و همچنین فراوانی روزهای با جریان صفر، مدل </span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:8.0pt">SWAT</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"> از قابلیت بالایی جهت شبیه ­سازی دبی ماهانه حوضه­ های آبخیز مناطق خشک برخوردار است.</span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span lang="FA" style="font-size:6.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:80%"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:80%"><span style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
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<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:90%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">Extended Abstract</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" dir="RTL" style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></b></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:90%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">Introduction and Objective</span></b><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif""> mankind has witnessed various hydrological events such as water shortage, drought, flood, avalanche, etc., and the scope of these events depends on the behavior of hydrological variables and characteristics of watersheds.</span> <span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">The lack of statistics and information or the lack of correct and appropriate statistics has caused the investigation and recognition of the behavior of hydrological variables and the characteristics of watersheds with acceptable accuracy. Based on this, hydrological models are a suitable tool for evaluating the current state of water resources and predicting future conditions with knowledge and understanding of the prevailing interactions at the level of watersheds.</span><span lang="AR-SA" dir="RTL" style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:90%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">Material and Methods:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif""> In this research, using the SWAT model, the precipitation-runoff simulation of the Lar watershed was carried out, and for this purpose, the daily data of precipitation, temperature and discharge during the common statistical period (1988-2017) were used</span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family:"2 Mitra"">.</span> <span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">The initial simulation of the hydrological model was done in the SWAT plugin, and the SWAT-CUP software and the SUFI-</span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-family:"2 Mitra"">2</span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif""> method were used as an optimal algorithm for sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of the model.</span><span lang="AR-SA" dir="RTL" style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:90%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">Results</span></b><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif""> Based on the SWAT model, the study area was divided into 37 sub-basins and 308 hydrological response units. In addition, by analyzing the sensitivity of 24 parameters affecting the simulation of the monthly runoff of the Lar watershed, it was determined that 7 parameters based on the values of the t-state and p-value indicators were selected as the parameters with the greatest effect, and out of these 7 parameters, Three parameters curve number for medium humidity conditions, base flow return factor to the main waterway and average usable water were identified as the most sensitive parameters in runoff simulation. Then 18 years of the statistical period (1988-2005) were selected for recalibration and 12 years (2006-2017) for validation. Also, the effectiveness and efficiency of the model was evaluated using NS, R2, p-factor and r-factor coefficients. Model efficiency was evaluated using NS, R2, p-factor and r-factor coefficients. The values of these coefficients were estimated as 0.80, 0.82, 0.80 and 0.33 during the calibration period and 0.90, 0.90, 0.39 and 0.43 during the validation period. In addition, the temporal compatibility of the high and low points of the simulated and measured discharge hydrographs also confirmed the high accuracy of the model in the simulation.</span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:90%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">Conclusion:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif""> The obtained results show that despite the seasonal flow and no base flow, as well as the frequency of days with zero flow, the SWAT model has a high ability to simulate the monthly discharge of watersheds in dry areas.</span><span lang="AR-SA" dir="RTL" style="font-family:"2 Mitra""></span></span></span></span><br>
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روش SUFI-2, مدیریت حوضه آبخیز, مناطق خشک, SWAT-CUP
Keywords: Dry Areas, SUFI-2 method, SWAT-CUP, Watershed Management
135
145
http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-121-5&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
Mahnaz
Kiyani Majd
مهناز
کیانی مجد
mahnazkiyani@uoz.ac.ir
100319475328460012798
100319475328460012798
No
University of Zabol
گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه زابل
Mohammad
Nohtani
محمد
نهتانی
m.nohtani@uoz.ac.ir
100319475328460012799
100319475328460012799
Yes
University of Zabol
گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه زابل
Mohammad Reza
Dehmardeh Ghaleh No
محمدرضا
دهمرده قلعه نو
mr.dahmardeh@uoz.ac.ir
100319475328460012800
100319475328460012800
No
University of Zabol
دانشگاه زابل
Zahra
Shikh
زهرا
شیخ
zahra.shikh03@semnan.ac.ir
100319475328460012801
100319475328460012801
No
university of semnan
دانشگاه سمنان