fa بررسی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی آینده بر آورد رسوب معلق حوزه های آبخیز ( مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز شهرکرد) تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:2 mitra;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<span style="font-size:11px;"> تغییر</span></span></span></span></strong><span style="font-size:11px;"> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیم</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">یکی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">از</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مهم &shy;ترین</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">چالش&shy; هایی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">است</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">که</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بخش&shy; های</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مختلف</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">زندگی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">انسان</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">را</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">در</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">روی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">زمین</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تحت</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تاثیر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">قرار</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">داده</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">است. ارزیابی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">پدیده</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تغییر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیم</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">و</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">پیامدهای</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">احتمالی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">آن</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">فرآیندهای</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">هیدرولوژی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">حوضه</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">کمک</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">فراوانی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">به چالش</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">&shy;</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;">های</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مدیران</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">و برنامه‌ریزان</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">منابع</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">آب</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">در</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">دوره &shy;های</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">آتی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">خواهد</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">کرد. هدف</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">از انجام</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">این</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تحقیق</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بررسی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تاثیر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">پدیده</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تغییر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیم</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بر آورد</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">رسوب خروجی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">حوضه شهرکرد در دوره 2065-2046 می &shy;باشد. در</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">این</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تحقیق</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">از</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مدل</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">نیمه توزیعی </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">SWAT </span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;">&nbsp;در ارزیابی اثر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تغییراقلیم</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بر آورد رسوب</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">حوزه</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">آبریز</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">شهرکرد</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">استفاده</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">شده</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">است</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">.</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"> دراین</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">راستا</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">ابتدا</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مدل</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">پیوسته نیمه</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">توزیعی</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;"> SWAT</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"> برای دوره پایه 2002 تا 2010 مورد</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">واسنجی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">و</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اعتبارسنجی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">قرار</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">گرفت. سپس</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">جهت</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">ارزیابی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اثرات</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تغییر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیم</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">و</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">گرمایش</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">جهانی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بر</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">آورد رسوبات معلق حوضه در دوره 2065-2046 میلادی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">داده &shy;های</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مدل</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیمی </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">HadCM3</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"> تحت</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">سناریوهای</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">انتشار </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">A1B</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;">،</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">A2 </span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;">&nbsp;و</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">B1</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"> برای</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">منطقه ریزمقیاس</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">شد. در ادامه</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">داده</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">&shy;</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;">های</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیمی ریزمقیاس</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">شده</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">به</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مدل </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">SWAT</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"> معرفی و</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">تغییرات</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">رسوب</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">در</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">دوره</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">آتی و در پایه &shy;های زمانی مختلف</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مورد ارزیابی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">قرار</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">گرفت. نتایج</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">سناریوی</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">اقلیمی دما</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">و</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">بارش</span></strong> <strong><span style="color:black;">مدل </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:times new roman bold,serif;">HadCM3</span></span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"> نشان داد که </span></strong>&nbsp;<strong><span style="color:black;">در دوره&shy;ی 2065-2046 دمای منطقه در ماه&shy; های مختلف بین 1/1 تا 6/2 درجه سلسیوس نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد داشت. بارش نیز بجز در ماه&shy; های کم بارش، تغییری بین 18 تا 30- درصد خواهد داشت که می&shy;تواند بر مقدار کلی آورد رسوب حوزه آبخیز اثرگذار باشد. شبیه‌سازی&shy; ها همچنین نشان از تغییر رسوب روزانه بین 5- تا 46 درصد دارند. در هر سه سناریو در دوره 2065-2046 کاهش رسوب در مقایسه با رسوب مشاهداتی برای ماه&shy; های فوریه، مارس و می و افزایش دبی برای سایر ماه&shy; های سال برآورد شد. </span></strong></span><br> &nbsp;</p> <p>Climate change&nbsp;is&nbsp;one&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;most important challenges&nbsp;that&nbsp;influenced&nbsp;different parts of human life on&nbsp;the earth.&nbsp;Evaluation&nbsp;of climate&nbsp;change phenomenon and its possible outcomes on hydrological processes can decrese&nbsp;the&nbsp;challenges of managers and planners of water resources in the next period.&nbsp; The main aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on sediment output of Sharekord watershed basin (2046-2065 period).&nbsp;In this research, SWAT&nbsp;distribution&nbsp;model was used to study the impact of climate change on Shahrekord watershed basin hydrology. SWAT was calibrated and accreditated for the base period of 2002 to 2010. In order to&nbsp;evaluate the&nbsp;effects&nbsp;of climate change and global warming on&nbsp;the basin sediment during 2046-2065, HadCM3 climate model data was subscaled under scenario of A1B, A2 and B1 using LARS. In continuation, downscaled climate data were introdued to SWAT model&nbsp;and sediment&nbsp;changes in the next period were estimated. Results&nbsp;show that climate and hydrology variables of Shahrekord basin will have remarkable changes in the next period. Comparison between observed and simulated climate parameters in 2046-2065 period show that&nbsp;the temprature of region&nbsp;will increase in&nbsp;different&nbsp;months between 1.1 to 2.6 &ordm;C compared to the baseline. Precipitation will have also a change between -30 up to 18 precent, except during the months&nbsp;of&nbsp;low rainfall. It can affect the total quantity of available water, the peak and extreme events. Results of simulations also show the sediment variations between 500 and -90 percent.<br> &nbsp;</p> SWAT, سناریوهای اقلیمی,منابع آب, رسوب , مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3, LARS-WG Modeling, Sediment, SWAT, Climate change, Shahrekord plain, HadCM3 general circulation model, LARS-WG 271 283 http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-11-576-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Reza Ghazavi رضا قضاوی ghazavi@kashanu.ac.ir 10031947532846007089 10031947532846007089 Yes University of Kashn دانشگاه کاشان Abbas Ghaffari عباس غفاری abbas.ghaffari66@gmail.com 10031947532846007090 10031947532846007090 No University of Kashn دانشگاه کاشان Siyamak Dokhani سیامک دخانی siamakdokhani@gmail.com 10031947532846007091 10031947532846007091 No University of Kashn دانشگاه کاشان