دوره 9، شماره 18 - ( پاییز و زمستان 1397 )
جلد 9 شماره 18 صفحات 134-123 |
برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
soheili E, Malekinezhad H, Ekhtesasi M R. (2019). Analysis of Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in Doroodzan Dam Basin using the Modified Mann-Kendall Test
. J Watershed Manage Res. 9(18), 123-134. doi:10.29252/jwmr.9.18.123
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-830-fa.html
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-830-fa.html
سهیلی اسماعیل، ملکی نژاد حسین، اختصاصی محمدرضا. واکاوی تغییرات بلند مدت دما و بارش با چند روش ناپارامتری شناسایی روند در حوضه سد درودزن
پژوهشنامه مديريت حوزه آبخيز 1397; 9 (18) :134-123 10.29252/jwmr.9.18.123
1- دانشگاه یزد
چکیده: (4152 مشاهده)
حوضه سد درودزن یکی از مناطق استراتژیک تولید کشاورزی در استان فارس است. تغییرات سری‌های زمانی پارامترهای اقلیمی به خصوص روند پارامترهای دما و بارش می‌تواند بر چرخه رشد محصولات کشاورزی، وضعیت منابع آب و اقتصاد ساکنان حوضه تاثیر قابل توجهی داشته باشد. در مطالعه حاضر، روند بارش و دما، در 13 ایستگاه باران‌سنجی و 4 ایستگاه دماسنجی بررسی گردید. در ابتدا از آزمون نقطه تغییر به روش پتیت جهت آزمون همگنی و وجود نقطه شکست در سری زمانی دادهها استفاده شد. سپس به کمک روشهای من_کندال (MK)، من_کندال اصلاح شده (MMK) و شیب خط سن وجود روند در سری زمانی بارش و دمای متوسط ماهانه و سالانه بررسی گردید. نتایج آزمون پتیت نشان داد نقطه شکست معنی داری در سری های ماهانه و سالانه بارش و ماهانه دما وجود ندارد، تنها در سری سالانه دمای 2 ایستگاه، نقطه شکست معنی‌دار در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد وجود دارد. نتایج بررسی روند با هر سه آزمون نشان داد روند بارش ماهانه در همه ایستگاه ها و بارش سالانه در بیشتر ایستگاه ها کاهشی و روند دمای متوسط ماهانه و سالانه افزایشی بوده است؛ با این حال، در هیچ یک از سری‌های زمانی روند در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد معنادار نبوده است. بر اساس نتایج، در کل حوضه دمای متوسط سالانه 7/3 درصد نسبت به میانگین افزایش و بارش 1/9 درصد کاهش داشته است.
فهرست منابع
1. Abolverdi, J., G. Ferdosifar, D. Khalili, A.A. Kamgar-Haghighi and M.A. Haghighi. 2014. Recent trends in regional air temperature and precipitation and links to global climate change in the Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 126(3-4): 177-192. [DOI:10.1007/s00703-014-0341-5]
2. Ahani, H., M. Kherad, M.R. Kousari, M. Rezaeian-Zadeh, M.A. Karampour, F. Ejraee and S. Kamali. 2012. An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109(3): 361-382. [DOI:10.1007/s00704-011-0572-z]
3. Ansari, M., G.R. Noori and S. Fotohi. 2017. Investigation of Temperature Precipitation and Flow Trend Using Nonparametric Mankendall (Case Study: Kaju River in Sistan and Baluchestan). journal of Watershed Management Research, 7(14): 152-158 (In Persian). [DOI:10.29252/jwmr.7.14.158]
4. Dadashi Roudbari, A., G. Fallah Ghalheri, M. Karami and M. Baaghide. 2016. Analysis of Precipitation Variations of Haraz Watershed Using by Statistical Methods and Spectrum Analysis Technique. Scientific Journal Management System, 2(7): 59-86 (In Persian).
5. Darand, M. 2014. Analysis of variations in extreme temperature and precipitation in Uremia indices as the signs of climate change. Jornal of Water and Soil Conservation, 21(2): 1-29 (In Persian).
6. De Lima, M., S. Carvalho, J. De Lima and M. Coelho. 2010. Trends in precipitation: analysis of long annual and monthly time series from mainland Portugal. Advances in Geosciences, 25: 155-160. [DOI:10.5194/adgeo-25-155-2010]
7. Ekhtesasi, M.R., F. Jahanbakhshi and M.R. Kousari. 2015. Evaluating the Trend of Precipitation in 32 Synoptic Stations in Iran with Nonparametric Method and Moving Summation of Data for the Period of 1970 to 2005 with Ranks of 1 to 48 Months.Technical Note. Iran-Water Resources Research, 11(2): 151-156 (In Persian).
8. Farokhnia, A. and S. Morid. 2014. Assessment of the effects of temperature and precipitation variations on the trend of river flows in Urmia Lake watershed. Journal of Water and Wastewater, 25(3): 86-97 (In Persian).
9. Gharechaei, H., A. Moghaddam Nia, A. Malekian and A. Ahmadi. 2016. Separation of the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff of Bakhtegan Basin. Iranian Journal of Eco hydrology, 2(4): 445-454 (In Persian).
10. Ghodoosi, M., S. Morid and M. Delavar. 2013. Comparison of detrending methods for the temperature and precipitations time series. Journa of Agricultural Meteorology, 1(2): 32-45 (In Persian).
11. Hajam, S., Y. Khoush Khou and R. Shams Aldin Vandi. 2008. Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Trend Analysis of Some Selective Meteorological Stations In Central Region of Iran Using Non-Poarametric Methods. Geography and Development, 40(64): 157- 168 (In Persian).
12. Hamed, K.H. and A.R. Rao. 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1-4): 182-196. [DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X]
13. Jafarzadeh, M.S., H. Rouhani, A. Heshmatpoure and M. Kashani. 2016. Detecting Trend of Meteorological Series Across the Gorganrood Basin in the Last Three Decades. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 7(13): 230-240 (In Persian). [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jwmr.7.13.240]
14. Khalili, K., M. Nazeri Tahrudi and F. Ahmadi. 2015. Application of PCI Index in the Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Pattern Investigation and Trend Analysis of Iran Duration the Recent Half Century. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 9(1): 195-208 (In Persian).
15. Khaliq, M.N., T.B.M.J. Ouarda, P. Gachon, L. Sushama and A. St-Hilaire. 2009. Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers. Journal of Hydrology, 368: 117-130. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.035]
16. Kousari, M., M.T. Dastorani, Y. Niazi, E. Soheyli, M. Hayatzadeh and J. Chezgi. 2014. Trend Detection of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Iran Based on Implementation of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Application of Non-Parametrical Statistical Method. Water Resour Manag, 28: 1857-1872. [DOI:10.1007/s11269-014-0558-6]
17. Kousari, M.R., H. Ahani and H. Hakimelahi. 2013. An investigation of near surface wind speed trends in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114(1): 153-168. [DOI:10.1007/s00704-012-0811-y]
18. Kousari, M.R., M.A. Asadi Zarch, H. Ahani and H. Hakimelahi. 2013. A survey of temporal and spatial reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran from 1960 to 2005. Climatic Change, 120(1): 277-298. [DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0821-5]
19. Kousari, M.R., M.R. Ekhtesasi and H. Malekinezhad. 2017. Investigation of long term drought trend in semi-arid, arid and hyper-arid regions of the world. Desert Management, 8(Autumn & Winter,): 36-53 (In Persian).
20. Marofi, S., B. khatar, M. Sadeghifar, N. Parsafar and A. Ildoromi. 2014. Drought Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series Model and SPI Index for Central Parts of Hamedan Province. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 28(1): 213-225 (In Persian).
21. Modaresi, F., S. Araghinejad, K. Ebrahimi and M. Kholghi. 2010. Regional assessment of climate change using statistical tests: Case Study of Gorganroud-Gharehsou Basin. Journal of water and soil, 24(3): 476-489 (In Persian).
22. Mofidi, A., M. Hamidianpour, M. Salihgheh and B. Alijani. 2014. Determination of the Onset, Withdrawal and Duration of Sistan wind using a Change Point Approach. Geography and Environmental Hazard, 2(8): 87-112 (In Persian).
23. Morozova, A.L. and M.A. Valente. 2012. Homogenization of Portuguese long-term temperature data series: Lisbon, Coimbra and Porto, . Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 4: 187-213. [DOI:10.5194/essd-4-187-2012]
24. Nafarzadegan, A.R., M. Rezaeian Zadeh, M. Kherad, H. Ahani, A. Gharehkhani, M.A. Karampoor and M.R. Kousari. 2012. Drought area monitoring during the past three decades in Fars province, Iran. Quaternary International, 250: 27-36. [DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.12.009]
25. Nassaji Zavareh, M., A. Khorshiddoust, A. Rasouli and A. Slajegheh. 2014. Assessment of Discharge Trend of Kasilian Watershed. Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science & Engineering, 8(24): 1-8 (In Persian).
26. Pal, I. and A. Al-Tabbaa. 2011. Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 103(1-2): 1-11. [DOI:10.1007/s00704-010-0277-8]
27. Rahimi, L., A.A. Dehghani and K. Ghorbani. 2016. Comparison of Total flow, Base flow and Water-Quality Characteristics Trend in Arazkuseh Hydrometric Station. Journal Of Watershed Management Research, 7(13): 83-91(In Persian). [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jwmr.7.13.91]
28. Ranjbar, A., D. Khalili, S. Zand Parsa and A.A. Kamgar-Haghighi. 2015. Regional Drought Monitoring Based on Infelow Into The Doroodzan Reservoir OIR In Fars Province. Journal of Irrigation Science and Engineering, 38(1): 79-96 (In Persian).
29. Sabziparvar, A.A., Z. Seif and F. Ghiyami. 2013. Analysis of Temperature changes Trend in Arid and Semi-arid Regions. Geography and Development, 11: 139-156 (In Persian).
30. Salarijazi, M., A.M. Akhond-Ali, A. Adib and A. Daneshkhah. 2012. Trend and change-point detection for the annual stream-flow series of the Karun River at the Ahvaz hydrometric station. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(32): 4540-4552. [DOI:10.5897/AJAR12.650]
31. Sonali, P. and D.N. Kumar. 2013. Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. Journal of Hydrology, 476: 212-227. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.034]
32. Torabi Poodeh, H. and S. Emamgholizadeh. 2015. Trend analysis of streamflow changing of north watershed of Dez River with TFPW-MK procedure. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 22(3): 39-55 (In Persian).
33. Yue, S. and C. Wang. 2004. The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series. Water Resources Management, 18: 201-218. [DOI:10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60]
ارسال پیام به نویسنده مسئول
| بازنشر اطلاعات | |
 |
این مقاله تحت شرایط Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License قابل بازنشر است. |
