Journal of Watershed Management Research

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Hemmati L, Miryaghoubzadeh M. (2021). Forecasting of Climate Variables in Future Periods Based on HadCM3 Data using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Agh-Chay Basin (West Azarbayjan). J Watershed Manage Res. 12(23), 95-107. doi:10.52547/jwmr.12.23.95
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-1020-en.html

TThe industrialization of communities and the rise of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the temperature of the earth and other climate parameters. This phenomenon is the most important problem of the planet in the present century, hence the assessment of the extent of its formation on a global and regional scale is of particular importance. So far, several General Circulation Model (GCM) has been designed to predict future climate change, but the outputs from these models cannot be used because of the localization on a local scale. So various methods have been developed to use the outputs of these models on a regional and local scale. In this research Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to evaluate the changes in temperature indices in the Agh-Chay watershed. In order to, the efficiency of this model was evaluated for downscaling of the temperature indices in Khoy synoptic station and the indices were simulated until 2100. The SDSM model was calibrated and validated by using Khoy station observation temperature and national center environmental prediction data. For evaluating the model, mean absolute error and root mean squared error was used and after obtaining the efficiency of the model the outputs of the HadCM3 model, the duration of 2020-2050, and 2070-2100 under the A2 and B2 scenarios were downscaled with SDSM statistical model respectively. The results show the increasing of the minimum and maximum temperature in the study area in most of the months. The maximum temperature was up to 3.48 ° C in the period 2020-2050 and up to 5.6 ° C during the period 2070-2100 and the minimum temperature up to 3.45 ° C for the period 2020-2050 and up to 5.51 for the period 2070-2100. The results also show an increase in precipitation in most months of the year from 2050 to 2020 period (in the range of 0.1 to 95.74). Rainfall changes from 2100 to 2070 period are in the form of an increase in most months of the year with a maximum of 94.64 and a minimum of 1.34 percent.