دوره 7، شماره 14 - ( پاییز و زمستان 1395 )
جلد 7 شماره 14 صفحات 141-151 |
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(2017). Assessment the Effects of Greenhouse Gases Emission and Climate Change on Supply and Demand of Irrigation Water and Agricultural Products in Watersheds of Qazvin Province . J Watershed Manage Res. 7(14), 151-141. doi:10.29252/jwmr.7.14.151
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-765-fa.html
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-765-fa.html
پرهیزکاری ابوذر، مظفری محمدمهدی. ارزیابی اثرات انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و تغییرات اقلیم بر عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری و تولیدات کشاورزی در حوزه های آبخیز استان قزوین پژوهشنامه مديريت حوزه آبخيز 1395; 7 (14) :141-151 10.29252/jwmr.7.14.151
چکیده: (4745 مشاهده)
در مطالعه حاضر ابتدا با بهرهگیری از دادههای سری زمانی سالهای 92-1385 و مدل شبیهسازی RCM-PRECIS اثر انتشار گازهای گلخانهای بر متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش تحت سناریوهای مختلف در حوزههای آبخیز استان قزوین بررسی شد. سپس، جهت بررسی میزان اثرگذاری متغیرهای دما و بارش بر عملکرد محصولات منتخب از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی (OLS) و تحلیلهای رگرسیونی استفاده شد. در ادامه با لحاظ نمودن نتایج تحلیل رگرسیونی در مدل برنامهریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، میزان تغییرات به وجود آمده در عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری و تولیدات بخش کشاورزی در حوزههای آبخیز استان قزوین بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که انتشار گازهای گلخانهای تحت سناریوهای A، B و C متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش را به میزان 43/0 تا 27/1 درجه سانتیگراد و 1/14- تا 31/1 میلی‌متر متأثر میسازد که این امر عملکرد محصولات منتخب را در سطح حوزههای آبخیز استان قزوین تغییر میدهد. با تغییر در عملکرد، سطح زیرکشت محصولات زراعی از 51/10- تا 17/3 درصد، میزان عرضه آب آبیاری از 4/10- تا 64/1 درصد و میزان تقاضای آب آبیاری از 60/1 تا 35/7 درصد تغییر میکند. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین و کمترین کاهش شکاف بین عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری در حوزههای آبخیز خررود و شاهرود به میزان 20/9 و 82/1 درصد حاصل میشود.
واژه‌های کلیدی: انتشار گازهای گلخانهای، عرضه و تقاضای آب آبیاری، برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت، تولیدات کشاورزی، مدل گردش عمومی، حوزه های آبخیز قزوین
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