Volume 9, Issue 18 (1-2019)                   J Watershed Manage Res 2019, 9(18): 123-134 | Back to browse issues page


XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

soheili E, Malekinezhad H, Ekhtesasi M R. (2019). Analysis of Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in Doroodzan Dam Basin using the Modified Mann-Kendall Test . J Watershed Manage Res. 9(18), 123-134. doi:10.29252/jwmr.9.18.123
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-830-en.html
1- yazd univercity
Abstract:   (3994 Views)
Doroodzan Dam basin is one of the strategic agricultural areas in Fars province. Changes in time series of climatic parameters, especially temperature and precipitation parameters, can have a significant impact on the growth cycle of agricultural products, the status of water resources and the economy of the populations in the area. In the present study, rainfall and temperature trends were investigated in 13 rainfall stations and 4 thermometric stations. Initially, the change point pettitt test was used to assess the homogeneity and change point in the time series. Then, trends in the rainfall, average monthly and annual temperature time series were investigated using Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and the sen’s slope methods. The results of the pettitt test showed that there is no significant change point in the monthly and annual rainfall and monthly temperature time series, only in the annual temperature of two stations, there is a significant change point at the 95% confidence level. The results of the trend analysis with all three abovementioned methods showed that the monthly precipitation in all stations and annual precipitation in most stations have a decreasing trend and the average monthly and annual temperature have an increasing trend; however, in none of the time series, the trend was significant in the confidence level of 95%. Based on the results, in the whole area, the mean annual temperature increased by 3.7 percent and precipitation decreased by 9.1 percent compared to the mean.
 
Full-Text [PDF 2040 kb]   (1039 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: هيدرولوژی
Received: 2017/08/4 | Accepted: 2017/09/26

References
1. Abolverdi, J., G. Ferdosifar, D. Khalili, A.A. Kamgar-Haghighi and M.A. Haghighi. 2014. Recent trends in regional air temperature and precipitation and links to global climate change in the Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 126(3-4): 177-192. [DOI:10.1007/s00703-014-0341-5]
2. Ahani, H., M. Kherad, M.R. Kousari, M. Rezaeian-Zadeh, M.A. Karampour, F. Ejraee and S. Kamali. 2012. An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109(3): 361-382. [DOI:10.1007/s00704-011-0572-z]
3. Ansari, M., G.R. Noori and S. Fotohi. 2017. Investigation of Temperature Precipitation and Flow Trend Using Nonparametric Mankendall (Case Study: Kaju River in Sistan and Baluchestan). journal of Watershed Management Research, 7(14): 152-158 (In Persian). [DOI:10.29252/jwmr.7.14.158]
4. Dadashi Roudbari, A., G. Fallah Ghalheri, M. Karami and M. Baaghide. 2016. Analysis of Precipitation Variations of Haraz Watershed Using by Statistical Methods and Spectrum Analysis Technique. Scientific Journal Management System, 2(7): 59-86 (In Persian).
5. Darand, M. 2014. Analysis of variations in extreme temperature and precipitation in Uremia indices as the signs of climate change. Jornal of Water and Soil Conservation, 21(2): 1-29 (In Persian).
6. De Lima, M., S. Carvalho, J. De Lima and M. Coelho. 2010. Trends in precipitation: analysis of long annual and monthly time series from mainland Portugal. Advances in Geosciences, 25: 155-160. [DOI:10.5194/adgeo-25-155-2010]
7. Ekhtesasi, M.R., F. Jahanbakhshi and M.R. Kousari. 2015. Evaluating the Trend of Precipitation in 32 Synoptic Stations in Iran with Nonparametric Method and Moving Summation of Data for the Period of 1970 to 2005 with Ranks of 1 to 48 Months.Technical Note. Iran-Water Resources Research, 11(2): 151-156 (In Persian).
8. Farokhnia, A. and S. Morid. 2014. Assessment of the effects of temperature and precipitation variations on the trend of river flows in Urmia Lake watershed. Journal of Water and Wastewater, 25(3): 86-97 (In Persian).
9. Gharechaei, H., A. Moghaddam Nia, A. Malekian and A. Ahmadi. 2016. Separation of the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff of Bakhtegan Basin. Iranian Journal of Eco hydrology, 2(4): 445-454 (In Persian).
10. Ghodoosi, M., S. Morid and M. Delavar. 2013. Comparison of detrending methods for the temperature and precipitations time series. Journa of Agricultural Meteorology, 1(2): 32-45 (In Persian).
11. Hajam, S., Y. Khoush Khou and R. Shams Aldin Vandi. 2008. Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Trend Analysis of Some Selective Meteorological Stations In Central Region of Iran Using Non-Poarametric Methods. Geography and Development, 40(64): 157- 168 (In Persian).
12. Hamed, K.H. and A.R. Rao. 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1-4): 182-196. [DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X]
13. Jafarzadeh, M.S., H. Rouhani, A. Heshmatpoure and M. Kashani. 2016. Detecting Trend of Meteorological Series Across the Gorganrood Basin in the Last Three Decades. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 7(13): 230-240 (In Persian). [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jwmr.7.13.240]
14. Khalili, K., M. Nazeri Tahrudi and F. Ahmadi. 2015. Application of PCI Index in the Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Pattern Investigation and Trend Analysis of Iran Duration the Recent Half Century. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 9(1): 195-208 (In Persian).
15. Khaliq, M.N., T.B.M.J. Ouarda, P. Gachon, L. Sushama and A. St-Hilaire. 2009. Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers. Journal of Hydrology, 368: 117-130. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.035]
16. Kousari, M., M.T. Dastorani, Y. Niazi, E. Soheyli, M. Hayatzadeh and J. Chezgi. 2014. Trend Detection of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Iran Based on Implementation of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Application of Non-Parametrical Statistical Method. Water Resour Manag, 28: 1857-1872. [DOI:10.1007/s11269-014-0558-6]
17. Kousari, M.R., H. Ahani and H. Hakimelahi. 2013. An investigation of near surface wind speed trends in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114(1): 153-168. [DOI:10.1007/s00704-012-0811-y]
18. Kousari, M.R., M.A. Asadi Zarch, H. Ahani and H. Hakimelahi. 2013. A survey of temporal and spatial reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran from 1960 to 2005. Climatic Change, 120(1): 277-298. [DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0821-5]
19. Kousari, M.R., M.R. Ekhtesasi and H. Malekinezhad. 2017. Investigation of long term drought trend in semi-arid, arid and hyper-arid regions of the world. Desert Management, 8(Autumn & Winter,): 36-53 (In Persian).
20. Marofi, S., B. khatar, M. Sadeghifar, N. Parsafar and A. Ildoromi. 2014. Drought Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series Model and SPI Index for Central Parts of Hamedan Province. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 28(1): 213-225 (In Persian).
21. Modaresi, F., S. Araghinejad, K. Ebrahimi and M. Kholghi. 2010. Regional assessment of climate change using statistical tests: Case Study of Gorganroud-Gharehsou Basin. Journal of water and soil, 24(3): 476-489 (In Persian).
22. Mofidi, A., M. Hamidianpour, M. Salihgheh and B. Alijani. 2014. Determination of the Onset, Withdrawal and Duration of Sistan wind using a Change Point Approach. Geography and Environmental Hazard, 2(8): 87-112 (In Persian).
23. Morozova, A.L. and M.A. Valente. 2012. Homogenization of Portuguese long-term temperature data series: Lisbon, Coimbra and Porto, . Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 4: 187-213. [DOI:10.5194/essd-4-187-2012]
24. Nafarzadegan, A.R., M. Rezaeian Zadeh, M. Kherad, H. Ahani, A. Gharehkhani, M.A. Karampoor and M.R. Kousari. 2012. Drought area monitoring during the past three decades in Fars province, Iran. Quaternary International, 250: 27-36. [DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.12.009]
25. Nassaji Zavareh, M., A. Khorshiddoust, A. Rasouli and A. Slajegheh. 2014. Assessment of Discharge Trend of Kasilian Watershed. Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science & Engineering, 8(24): 1-8 (In Persian).
26. Pal, I. and A. Al-Tabbaa. 2011. Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 103(1-2): 1-11. [DOI:10.1007/s00704-010-0277-8]
27. Rahimi, L., A.A. Dehghani and K. Ghorbani. 2016. Comparison of Total flow, Base flow and Water-Quality Characteristics Trend in Arazkuseh Hydrometric Station. Journal Of Watershed Management Research, 7(13): 83-91(In Persian). [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jwmr.7.13.91]
28. Ranjbar, A., D. Khalili, S. Zand Parsa and A.A. Kamgar-Haghighi. 2015. Regional Drought Monitoring Based on Infelow Into The Doroodzan Reservoir OIR In Fars Province. Journal of Irrigation Science and Engineering, 38(1): 79-96 (In Persian).
29. Sabziparvar, A.A., Z. Seif and F. Ghiyami. 2013. Analysis of Temperature changes Trend in Arid and Semi-arid Regions. Geography and Development, 11: 139-156 (In Persian).
30. Salarijazi, M., A.M. Akhond-Ali, A. Adib and A. Daneshkhah. 2012. Trend and change-point detection for the annual stream-flow series of the Karun River at the Ahvaz hydrometric station. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(32): 4540-4552. [DOI:10.5897/AJAR12.650]
31. Sonali, P. and D.N. Kumar. 2013. Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. Journal of Hydrology, 476: 212-227. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.034]
32. Torabi Poodeh, H. and S. Emamgholizadeh. 2015. Trend analysis of streamflow changing of north watershed of Dez River with TFPW-MK procedure. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 22(3): 39-55 (In Persian).
33. Yue, S. and C. Wang. 2004. The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series. Water Resources Management, 18: 201-218. [DOI:10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60]

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA

Send email to the article author


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2024 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Journal of Watershed Management Research

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb