دوره 11، شماره 22 - ( پاییز و زمستان 1399 )                   جلد 11 شماره 22 صفحات 11-19 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Kanani R, Fakheri Fard A, Ghorbani M A, Dinpashoh Y. Trend Analysis of the Streamflow in the Lighvan River hydrometric Stations (Upstream and Downstream). jwmr. 2020; 11 (22) :11-19
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-960-fa.html
کنعانی رضا، فاخری فرد احمد، قربانی محمد علی، دین پژوه یعقوب. تحلیل روند تغییرات جریان در ایستگاه های بالادست و پایین دست رودخانه لیقوان. پ‍‍ژوهشنامه مديريت حوزه آبخيز. 1399; 11 (22) :11-19

URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-960-fa.html


دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده:   (326 مشاهده)
    در سال­های اخیر جریان رودخانه­ ها در اثر تغییر اقلیم و اقدامات انسانی بویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمه­ خشک به­ طور قابل توجهی کاهش یافته است. در این تحقیق اثرات تغییر اقلیم و فعالیت­ های انسانی بر رواناب حوضه لیقوان واقع در شمال غرب ایران با استفاده از شبیه­ سازی مدل هیدرولوژیکی مطالعه شد. در تعیین مدل هیدرولوژیکی از روش­های رگرسیون چندگانه پیشرو و ریج استفاده شد. برای تعیین روند داده ­های هیدرواقلیمی تست من­کندال بکار رفت. همچنین تست پتیت برای تشخیص نقاط تغییر سریع مقادیر دبی سالانه و متغیرهای اقلیمی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مقادیر آبدهی دارای روند منفی بوده و در ایستگاه پایین­دست هروی در سطح 10% معنی­دار است. در رابطه با عوامل اقلیمی روند اقزایشی در متغیرهای دما و روند نزولی در مقادیر نم­نسبی حوضه وجود دارد. همچنین تمام متغیرهای بارش در فصل بهار دارای روند کاهشی است. تغییرات سریع در مقادیر رواناب و اغلب متغیرهای اقلیمی در میانه دهه 1990 رخ داده است. مقایسه متوسط دبی در ایستگاه هروی در دو دوره نشان داد در دوره اخیر نسبت به دوره اول 36 %  کاهش یافته است. درصد تاثیر عوامل انسانی و اقلیمی بر کاهش رواناب در تمام مدل­ های مورد استفاده به­ ترتیب بین 84-65 و 35-16 درصد بود. بنابراین اثر فعالیت­های انسانی بر تغییرات جریان رودخانه قابل توجه می­ باشد. 
 
 
متن کامل [PDF 720 kb]   (109 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: هيدرولوژی
دریافت: 1397/6/11 | ویرایش نهایی: 1399/12/12 | پذیرش: 1397/10/8 | انتشار: 1399/12/13

فهرست منابع
1. Bahremand, A., G. Hamdami and E. Saniyi. 2013. Long-Term Changes Trend Analysis in Rainfall and Discharge in West Lake Urmia. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 4(8): 43-57 (In Persian).
2. Dinpazhooh, Y., F. Niazi and H. Mofid. 2015. Trend analysis and considering effect of meteorological parameters in Tabriz. Journal of Geography and Planning, 19(51): 145-169 (In Persian).
3. Gao, P., V. Geissen, C.J. Ritsema, X. Mu and F. Wang. 2013. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow and sediment discharge in the Wei River basin, China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17: 961-972. [DOI:10.5194/hess-17-961-2013]
4. Guo, Y., Z. Li, M.A. Boateng, P. Deng and H. Pengnian. 2014. Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes for the upper reaches of Weihe River. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28(2): 333-346. [DOI:10.1007/s00477-013-0752-8]
5. Guo, A., Q. Huang and Y. Wang. 2015. Quantitative study of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Beiluohe River basin. Remote Sensing and GIS for Hydrology and Water Resources, IAHS Publ, 368: 263-268. [DOI:10.5194/piahs-368-263-2015]
6. Hamed, K.H. and A.R. Rao. 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for auto correlated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204: 182-196. [DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X]
7. Hood, M. 2011. Increased flooding driven by climate change. African Network of Environmental Journalists (ANEJ.
8. Hu, S., H. Zheng, Z. Wang and J. Yu. 2012. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22(5): 895-905. [DOI:10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9]
9. Jiang, S., L. Ren, B. Yong, V.P. Singh, X. Yang and F. Yuan. 2011. Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods. Hydrological Processes, 25(16): 2492-2505. [DOI:10.1002/hyp.8002]
10. Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London, England.
11. Khalegi, S. 2014. The Evaluation of morphologic changes of river in drainage basins in response to land use changes (case study: Lighvan Chai catchment). Thesis approved for Ph.D Degree in Geomorphology, University of Tabriz.
12. Khoshravesh, M., M. Mirnaseri and M. Pesarakloo. 2017. Change Detection of Precipitation Trend of Northern Part of Iran using Mann- Kendall Non-Parametric Test. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 8(16): 223-231 (In Persian). [DOI:10.29252/jwmr.8.16.223]
13. Li, F., G. Zhang and Y. Xu. 2014. Separating the impacts of climate variation and human activities on runoff in the Songhua River basin. Northeast China. Water, 6: 3320-3338. [DOI:10.3390/w6113320]
14. Li, L., L. Zhang, J. Wang, J. Yang, D. Jiang, J. Li and D. Qin. 2007. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China. Hydrological Processes, 21: 3485-3491. [DOI:10.1002/hyp.6485]
15. Ma, H., D. Yang, S. Tan, B. Gao and Q. Hu. 2010. Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 389(3-4): 317-324. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010]
16. Mann, H.B. 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 33: 245-259. [DOI:10.2307/1907187]
17. Pettitt, A.N. 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change point problem. Applied Statistics, 28(2): 126-135. [DOI:10.2307/2346729]
18. Tan, X. and T.Y. Gan. 2015. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada. Scientific Reports, 5. [DOI:10.1038/srep17767]
19. Wang, D. and M. Hejazi. 2011. Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States. Water Resources Research, 47. [DOI:10.1029/2010WR010283]
20. Wang, H., L. Chen and X. Yu. 2016. Distinguishing human and climate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basin in China. Catena, 136: 182-188. [DOI:10.1016/j.catena.2015.02.013]
21. Yao, H., C. Shi, W. Shao, J. Bai and H. Yang. 2015. Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and sediment load of the Xiliugou basin in the upper Yellow river. Advances in Meteorology, 12-25. [DOI:10.1155/2015/481713]
22. Ye, X., Q. Zhang, J. Liu, X. Li and C. Xu. 2013. Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment, China. Journal of Hydrology, 494: 83-95. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.036]
23. Zhan, C.S., S.S. Jiang, F.B. Sun, Y.W. Jia, C.W. Niu and W.F. Yue. 2014. Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18: 3069-3077. [DOI:10.5194/hess-18-3069-2014]
24. Zhang, Y., D. Guan, C. Jin, A. Wang, J. Wu and F. Yuan. 2011. Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in northeast China. Journal of Hydrology, 410(3-4-22): 239-247.Zhao, C., C. Liu, X. Dai, T. Liu, Z. Duan, L. Liu and S.M. Mitrovic. 2015. Separation of the impacts of climate change and human activity on runoff variations. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(2): 234-246. [DOI:10.1080/02626667.2013.865029]
25. Bahremand, A., G. Hamdami and E. Saniyi. 2013. Long-Term Changes Trend Analysis in Rainfall and Discharge in West Lake Urmia. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 4(8): 43-57 (In Persian).
26. Dinpazhooh, Y., F. Niazi and H. Mofid. 2015. Trend analysis and considering effect of meteorological parameters in Tabriz. Journal of Geography and Planning, 19(51): 145-169 (In Persian).
27. Gao, P., V. Geissen, C.J. Ritsema, X. Mu and F. Wang. 2013. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow and sediment discharge in the Wei River basin, China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17: 961-972. [DOI:10.5194/hess-17-961-2013]
28. Guo, Y., Z. Li, M.A. Boateng, P. Deng and H. Pengnian. 2014. Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes for the upper reaches of Weihe River. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28(2): 333-346. [DOI:10.1007/s00477-013-0752-8]
29. Guo, A., Q. Huang and Y. Wang. 2015. Quantitative study of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Beiluohe River basin. Remote Sensing and GIS for Hydrology and Water Resources, IAHS Publ, 368: 263-268. [DOI:10.5194/piahs-368-263-2015]
30. Hamed, K.H. and A.R. Rao. 1998. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for auto correlated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204: 182-196. [DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X]
31. Hood, M. 2011. Increased flooding driven by climate change. African Network of Environmental Journalists (ANEJ.
32. Hu, S., H. Zheng, Z. Wang and J. Yu. 2012. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22(5): 895-905. [DOI:10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9]
33. Jiang, S., L. Ren, B. Yong, V.P. Singh, X. Yang and F. Yuan. 2011. Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods. Hydrological Processes, 25(16): 2492-2505. [DOI:10.1002/hyp.8002]
34. Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London, England.
35. Khalegi, S. 2014. The Evaluation of morphologic changes of river in drainage basins in response to land use changes (case study: Lighvan Chai catchment). Thesis approved for Ph.D Degree in Geomorphology, University of Tabriz.
36. Khoshravesh, M., M. Mirnaseri and M. Pesarakloo. 2017. Change Detection of Precipitation Trend of Northern Part of Iran using Mann- Kendall Non-Parametric Test. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 8(16): 223-231 (In Persian). [DOI:10.29252/jwmr.8.16.223]
37. Li, F., G. Zhang and Y. Xu. 2014. Separating the impacts of climate variation and human activities on runoff in the Songhua River basin. Northeast China. Water, 6: 3320-3338. [DOI:10.3390/w6113320]
38. Li, L., L. Zhang, J. Wang, J. Yang, D. Jiang, J. Li and D. Qin. 2007. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China. Hydrological Processes, 21: 3485-3491. [DOI:10.1002/hyp.6485]
39. Ma, H., D. Yang, S. Tan, B. Gao and Q. Hu. 2010. Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 389(3-4): 317-324. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010]
40. Mann, H.B. 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 33: 245-259. [DOI:10.2307/1907187]
41. Pettitt, A.N. 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change point problem. Applied Statistics, 28(2): 126-135. [DOI:10.2307/2346729]
42. Tan, X. and T.Y. Gan. 2015. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada. Scientific Reports, 5. [DOI:10.1038/srep17767]
43. Wang, D. and M. Hejazi. 2011. Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States. Water Resources Research, 47. [DOI:10.1029/2010WR010283]
44. Wang, H., L. Chen and X. Yu. 2016. Distinguishing human and climate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basin in China. Catena, 136: 182-188. [DOI:10.1016/j.catena.2015.02.013]
45. Yao, H., C. Shi, W. Shao, J. Bai and H. Yang. 2015. Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and sediment load of the Xiliugou basin in the upper Yellow river. Advances in Meteorology, 12-25. [DOI:10.1155/2015/481713]
46. Ye, X., Q. Zhang, J. Liu, X. Li and C. Xu. 2013. Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment, China. Journal of Hydrology, 494: 83-95. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.036]
47. Zhan, C.S., S.S. Jiang, F.B. Sun, Y.W. Jia, C.W. Niu and W.F. Yue. 2014. Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18: 3069-3077. [DOI:10.5194/hess-18-3069-2014]
48. Zhang, Y., D. Guan, C. Jin, A. Wang, J. Wu and F. Yuan. 2011. Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in northeast China. Journal of Hydrology, 410(3-4-22): 239-247.Zhao, C., C. Liu, X. Dai, T. Liu, Z. Duan, L. Liu and S.M. Mitrovic. 2015. Separation of the impacts of climate change and human activity on runoff variations. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(2): 234-246. [DOI:10.1080/02626667.2013.865029]

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