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Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources sari, Iran
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Introduction and Objective: One of the important effects of global warming is the increase in extreme atmospheric phenomena, the most important of which are sudden changes in temperature, excessive heat, abnormal cold, heavy rains and floods, drought and dust caused by regarding the drying up of the wetlands, he pointed out that the change in climatic components due to climate change has had an impact on the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events and subsequently on society and the natural environment; Therefore, examining the future changes of different precipitation indices is more necessary to implement management plans, especially for Iran, which needs progress in climate modeling studies with the aim of improving knowledge about climate changes and its effects in The whole country has In this study, changes in the trend and breaking point of rainfall-based indices using the CMIP6 series model under three optimistic, medium and pessimistic scenarios in Mazandaran province for two time periods: the near future (2021-2060) and the far future (2061-20100) were studied.
Material and Methods: In this research, to investigate the spatio-temporal trend and breaking point of the precipitation of Mazandaran province (15 stations) in the future period, from the precipitation data of SSP scenarios (126, 245,585) in the two periods of 2021-2060 and 2061-2100 was used. Using the R-Climdex software in the R software environment, the precipitation limit indices (9 Indices) were determined for different scenarios and periods, and then to check the trend and breaking point, from the Mann-Kendall tests, Sen and Pettitt were used.
Results: The results indicated that soon under the optimistic scenario (SSP126), the index of the number of consecutive wet days, days with heavy rain and very wet days in the eastern half of the province will increase significantly but based on the pessimistic scenario (SSP585) The profile of wet days and the annual amount of rainfall will decrease in different areas of the province. In terms of the occurrence of the breaking point, only in the pessimistic scenario of the profile of consecutive wet days, the daily intensity of precipitation and wet days will have a breaking point in the order of increasing in the 2060s, increasing in 2061 and decreasing in 2051 in the eastern half of the region. While under other scenarios, no sudden changes in the data series will be observed.
Conclusion: According to the results, it can be said that since the occurrence of severe meteorological events, including rainfall, is one of the main issues in the field of water resources, agriculture, and natural hazards in Mazandaran province, therefore, its study is necessary for long-term planning in various fields. And knowledge of the future perspective of extreme rainfall events can be used in soil, water, and agriculture management planning, especially in the economic development plans of the province.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: هواشناسی
Received: 2023/10/7 | Revised: 2023/12/30 | Accepted: 2023/12/31

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