Volume 6, Issue 11 (7-2015)
J Watershed Manage Res 2015, 6(11): 1-14 |
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(2015). Raifall-Runoff Modelling under the Climate Change Condition in Order to Project Future Streamflows of Sufichay Watershed. J Watershed Manage Res. 6(11), 1-14.
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-488-en.html
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-488-en.html
Abstract: (6849 Views)
Two major issues through studies on hydrological impact assessment of climate change are the sufficiency of historical data and selection of the best rainfall-runoff model. Climate models, with the ability to simulate climatic variables, are considered as references for future projections. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff model must be able to simulate streamflow using only these variables. Current study addresses a methodology of choosing the best model from global climate models for impact assessments which require local-scale climate scenarios. The approach is based on the use of a weather generator which can generate the local-scale daily climate scenarios used as an input in many process-based impact models. The results of analysis of Sufichay streamflows, which flow in Urmia lake basin, by the rainfall-runoff model of IHACRES, indicated a considerable difference between the climate models under emission scenarios A2 for the future period 2046-65. There were no noticeable differences under emission scenarios B1 for both future periods (2011-30 and 2046-65) and under emission scenarios A2 for the near period (2011-30) especially in warm seasons. The uncertainty of selecting different emission scenarios was low for the period 2011-30 and high for the mid-century (2046-65).
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