Volume 13, Issue 25 (5-2022)
J Watershed Manage Res 2022, 13(25): 1-10 |
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Karimi Sangchini E, Mosaffaie J, Salehpour Jam A. (2022). Prioritizing of Causal–Effect Factors Affecting Flood Occurrence in Khorramabad Watershed. J Watershed Manage Res. 13(25), 1-10. doi:10.52547/jwmr.13.25.1
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-1158-en.html
URL: http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-1158-en.html
1- Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization
Abstract: (2465 Views)
Extended Abstract
Introduction and Objective: Since flood dwindles the assets of local communities in villages and cities by destroying agricultural products, infrastructure, buildings, and machinery, flood management is an absolute necessity for rural development. Accordingly, one of the basic strategies to control and mitigate floods in this province is to identify issues in the upstream areas and provide appropriate management responses to tackle them. Our objective can therefore be stated as follows: (A) Identifying, prioritizing and determining the trend of changes in the factors affecting flood potential in Khorramabad watershed during statistical periods, and (B) proposing and evaluating appropriate management solutions to mitigate driving forces and pressures, improve the state and reduce the relevant impacts.
Material and Methods: The Khorramabad watershed constitutes a major part of the Kashkan basin, surrounding Khorramabad County. The study area covers 1609 km2. In this research, the issues of the watershed were identified based on the literature review, questions from experts and also field visits to further formulate possible coping strategies. The conceptual model included the components of driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Based on expert opinions, a conceptual causal-effect diagram of flood in the region was designed. Appropriate indicators were defined and quantified for each component of the model. Prioritization problems as well as to determine the most important management strategies for watershed flood management in Khorramabad, the expert opinion was used. For this purpose, a Likert scale questionnaire was used as a measurement tool. And the Friedman test was used for ranking. Also, the trend of changes in each of the DPSIR components was evaluated to evaluate the problem in time periods.
Results: Results showed that forests and pastures area has decreased by nearly 5% from 2003 to 2019. At the same time, cultivations have grown significantly by about 4%, where most of the forest and rangeland areas have been converted into agricultural lands and the natural vegetation cover of the region has been significantly reduced. The remaining one percent is devoted to the expansion of cities and villages from 3.3 in 2003 to 4.2 in 2019.According to the obtained results, the driving force of climate change (average ranked 2.93), population pressure (average ranked 2.78), and traditional livestock (average ranked 2.45) have the most important effect on the occurrence of floods, which in turn leads to reduced vegetation and land use change. The combination of these factors has caused the production of runoff and flood discharge in the region to increase sharply and the human and financial damages to increase every year. To combat this phenomenon, policies have been proposed by experts that are being implemented or can be implemented. The general results of this study show that the trend of flooding in this watershed is increasing, the pressure caused by driving forces, especially the number of surplus livestock in the watershed (with an average rank of 3.15) is intensifying. Managers' ability to reduce the power of the driving forces was very limited and the policies introduced were not able to response the need. Natural resource management protection measures (average ranked 4.95) and government financial support for flood compensation (average ranked 4.73) are the first and second ranks of managerial responses, respectively.
Conclusion: Indicators for the pressure component include road development, drought, excessive livestock grazing, and poor land management. Accordingly, the road network has expanded in the region over time. Road development is one of the general policies of any country to be able to access remote areas and to simplify their development. In this research, consulting experts introduced various policies that have been implemented or could be implemented to improve the watershed’s condition. Response policies introduced included depopulation, promoting modern livestock production methods, coping management programs including structural and biological methods, and finally providing flood mitigation assistance grants. Based on the pairwise comparisons, depopulation and modern livestock production methods are the two top management priorities in the region. But as was mentioned earlier, the pursued policies have failed to control the maximum flood discharge. As the weight of the driving force component suggests, the introduced responsive policies are either insufficient or ineffective in lowering flood risk in the watershed.
Introduction and Objective: Since flood dwindles the assets of local communities in villages and cities by destroying agricultural products, infrastructure, buildings, and machinery, flood management is an absolute necessity for rural development. Accordingly, one of the basic strategies to control and mitigate floods in this province is to identify issues in the upstream areas and provide appropriate management responses to tackle them. Our objective can therefore be stated as follows: (A) Identifying, prioritizing and determining the trend of changes in the factors affecting flood potential in Khorramabad watershed during statistical periods, and (B) proposing and evaluating appropriate management solutions to mitigate driving forces and pressures, improve the state and reduce the relevant impacts.
Material and Methods: The Khorramabad watershed constitutes a major part of the Kashkan basin, surrounding Khorramabad County. The study area covers 1609 km2. In this research, the issues of the watershed were identified based on the literature review, questions from experts and also field visits to further formulate possible coping strategies. The conceptual model included the components of driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Based on expert opinions, a conceptual causal-effect diagram of flood in the region was designed. Appropriate indicators were defined and quantified for each component of the model. Prioritization problems as well as to determine the most important management strategies for watershed flood management in Khorramabad, the expert opinion was used. For this purpose, a Likert scale questionnaire was used as a measurement tool. And the Friedman test was used for ranking. Also, the trend of changes in each of the DPSIR components was evaluated to evaluate the problem in time periods.
Results: Results showed that forests and pastures area has decreased by nearly 5% from 2003 to 2019. At the same time, cultivations have grown significantly by about 4%, where most of the forest and rangeland areas have been converted into agricultural lands and the natural vegetation cover of the region has been significantly reduced. The remaining one percent is devoted to the expansion of cities and villages from 3.3 in 2003 to 4.2 in 2019.According to the obtained results, the driving force of climate change (average ranked 2.93), population pressure (average ranked 2.78), and traditional livestock (average ranked 2.45) have the most important effect on the occurrence of floods, which in turn leads to reduced vegetation and land use change. The combination of these factors has caused the production of runoff and flood discharge in the region to increase sharply and the human and financial damages to increase every year. To combat this phenomenon, policies have been proposed by experts that are being implemented or can be implemented. The general results of this study show that the trend of flooding in this watershed is increasing, the pressure caused by driving forces, especially the number of surplus livestock in the watershed (with an average rank of 3.15) is intensifying. Managers' ability to reduce the power of the driving forces was very limited and the policies introduced were not able to response the need. Natural resource management protection measures (average ranked 4.95) and government financial support for flood compensation (average ranked 4.73) are the first and second ranks of managerial responses, respectively.
Conclusion: Indicators for the pressure component include road development, drought, excessive livestock grazing, and poor land management. Accordingly, the road network has expanded in the region over time. Road development is one of the general policies of any country to be able to access remote areas and to simplify their development. In this research, consulting experts introduced various policies that have been implemented or could be implemented to improve the watershed’s condition. Response policies introduced included depopulation, promoting modern livestock production methods, coping management programs including structural and biological methods, and finally providing flood mitigation assistance grants. Based on the pairwise comparisons, depopulation and modern livestock production methods are the two top management priorities in the region. But as was mentioned earlier, the pursued policies have failed to control the maximum flood discharge. As the weight of the driving force component suggests, the introduced responsive policies are either insufficient or ineffective in lowering flood risk in the watershed.
Keywords: Conceptual model, DPSIR method, Friedman test, Ranking of cause–effect factors, Suggested policies
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