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Tarbiat Modares University
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Introduction: Climate change has a direct impact on hydrological components and water resources and affects watershed outflow. Calculating the amount of possible changes in rainfall and runoff will play an important role in the policy making and planning of water resources under climate change conditions. In this research, simulation of runoff in eastern watersheds of Mazandaran province (Talar, Tajan, Nekarood and Babolrood) under the impact of climate change in the future period (2021-2040) was investigated.
Materials and methods: In this research, one of the atmospheric-ocean general circulation models named HadGEM2 was used under climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to investigate climate change. Lars-WG model was used for downscaling of climate data. For this purpose, the daily data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sunshine hours of the selected stations of four watersheds in the current period (1997-2016) were used and the daily values of the climate data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sunshine hours for the next 40 years (2021- 2060) was produced and simulated. IHACRES hydrological model was used to simulate rainfall-runoff. For this purpose, the daily data of rainfall, mean temperature and discharge of the current period (1997-2016) of four watersheds were entered into the IHACRES software. After calibration and validation in order to determine the performance of the model, the climate data produced by the HadGEM2 model was entered into IHACRES and the daily series of discharge was predicted for the future period (2021-2040).
Results: The results of the climate change investigation showed that in all four watersheds, mean monthly minimum and maximum temperature in all months of the future period will increase in both scenarios compared to the current period (1997-2016). The mean monthly rainfall in both scenarios does not have a constant trend compared to the current period and is different in various months. The results of the runoff simulation showed that the 20-year mean of the predicted discharge at the selected stations of Talar, Tajan and Nekarood watersheds in the future period for both scenarios has decreased compared to the current period, but at the station considered for Babolrood watershed, this value has increased in the RCP 2.6 scenario compared to the current period.
Conclusion: In general, the impact of climate change on water resources is one of the major challenges facing water resources planners and can have serious consequences for ecosystems and communities. Based on the findings of the research and the importance of the effects of climate change on the hydrological condition of the watersheds of the study area, it is necessary to apply appropriate policies for the sustainable management of water resources.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: هيدرولوژی
Received: 2023/01/22 | Revised: 2023/12/17 | Accepted: 2023/12/18

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