1- Shahid Beheshti University
2- Faculty of literature and human sciences, Urmia University, Urmia ,Iran
2- Faculty of literature and human sciences, Urmia University, Urmia ,Iran
Abstract: (277 Views)
Introduction and Objective: Climate change as an effective phenomenon on temperature variables, precipitation and reference evapotranspiration; In this century, it has had significant negative effects in different regions. Since the reference evapotranspiration represents the climatic conditions of different regions, therefore, knowing its changes for water resources management and agricultural planning, especially in Urmia synoptic station, which is dependent on agriculture, is very important. Therefore, in order to know the average changes of minimum and maximum temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the study area, the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration at Urmia station was evaluated using CMIP6 models.
Material and Methods: In order to predict the mentioned variables, observational data of Urmia synoptic station and CESM2 and IPSL-CM6A-LR models of the sixth report were used. Microscaling with the LS method during the base period (1975-2014) and two future periods (2020-2059 and 2060-2099); It was done under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. R2 and MAE measures were used to validate climate models. Finally, the Thornthwaite method was used to calculate reference evapotranspiration.
Results: The results indicate that the average minimum temperature changes in Urmia synoptic station in the near and far future will be between 0.03 to 3.69 and 0.55 to 5.59 ℃ and the maximum temperature will be between 0.25 to 3.84 and 0.55 to 5.01 ℃ compared to the base period and incremental observations.
Conclusion: The values of the average changes in reference evapotranspiration will increase between 0.01 to 21.08 and 0.08 to 29.86 mm/month in the near future and in the far future, which is a serious threat to the studied area.
Material and Methods: In order to predict the mentioned variables, observational data of Urmia synoptic station and CESM2 and IPSL-CM6A-LR models of the sixth report were used. Microscaling with the LS method during the base period (1975-2014) and two future periods (2020-2059 and 2060-2099); It was done under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. R2 and MAE measures were used to validate climate models. Finally, the Thornthwaite method was used to calculate reference evapotranspiration.
Results: The results indicate that the average minimum temperature changes in Urmia synoptic station in the near and far future will be between 0.03 to 3.69 and 0.55 to 5.59 ℃ and the maximum temperature will be between 0.25 to 3.84 and 0.55 to 5.01 ℃ compared to the base period and incremental observations.
Conclusion: The values of the average changes in reference evapotranspiration will increase between 0.01 to 21.08 and 0.08 to 29.86 mm/month in the near future and in the far future, which is a serious threat to the studied area.
Keywords: climate change, sixth report, temperature, reference evapotranspiration, Urmia synoptic station.
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